France's electricity supplier braces for possible power cuts this winter (2024)

"We're in an unprecedented situation, but there's no stress or nervousness. The operators are training." Olivier Loriot, Centre-Val de Loire regional director of Enedis –the EDF (Electricité de France) subsidiary tasked with managing its electricity distribution network –, tried to be reassuring: "We are ready," he insisted after the government warned on Wednesday, November 30, of possible power cuts this winter in the wake of shortages caused by the war in Ukraine.

Behind him, several technicians, their eyes riveted on their six screens, scrutinized the region's 80,000 kilometers of electrical networks. On the wall, other screens displayed the grey weather outside in real-time using a series of sophisticated criteria. From time to time, an alarm sounded to signal an incident.

Experienced in the day-to-day management of power outages, these operators know they will have a front-row seat in the event of a national power supply problem. "Our preparation has intensified ever since the very first alerts were issued by RTE [Réseau de Transport d'Electricité - Electricity Transport Network] in June," Mr. Loriot added.

On November 18, the electricity grid operator called for vigilance in the face of a risk of increased tension on the national grid in January 2023, due in particular to nuclear power shortages. To this end, several exercises simulating power cuts (known in-house as "programmable load shedding") have already been carried out, both at the local and national levels, to avoid a total blackout. The next one is scheduled for early December.

'Solidarity principle'

Acting as a control tower, the Enedis regional control agency based in a secret location near Orléans is one of 28 spread across the country that is responsible for monitoring and ensuring the network's security 24/7. Should there be an imbalance between power supply and demand, if production and imports are no longer enough to meet demand, it will be the RTE's mission to sound the alarm.

In such an event, control over the cuts would be assumed by Enedis after RTE had sent "an initial alert three days in advance," explained Sébastien Sarrazin, head of the Centre-Val de Loire regional control agency. "Firstly, we would receive estimates on the number of 100-megawatt blocks that need to be cut [one block being equivalent to 100,000 customers], and then the day before the power cuts, we would be able to define a targeted load-shedding plan that we would be ready to activate the next day," he detailed. All this data will be processed by an algorithm.

On paper, Enedis claims that urban and rural areas will be treated equally, although doubts remain.

Voltage reductions and load shedding will be carried out remotely and automatically, not at the level of the connected electricity meters (Linky) but from source substations, and large electrical cabinets that supply power to individuals and businesses in each neighborhood or town.

Enedis considers this a guarantee of equal treatment, ensuring that, on paper, urban and rural areas will be treated equally, although doubts remain on this subject. "We will make it so that efforts are spread over the entire population, according to a solidarity principle," explained Thierry Sudret, Enedis' director of operations and systems, in a press briefing in late October. On Wednesday evening, the government also specified that the coldest areas would not be the most impacted by load shedding.

Exemptions have nevertheless been set. Enedis will first have acquainted itself with the lists of priority clients now established by the prefects in each department: hospitals, laboratories, sites related to national security (like firefighters). Regional health agencies will also help identify the approximately 4,000 high-risk patients in life-threatening conditions, for example, those with respiratory problems or on dialysis, that rely on medical devices connected to the mains. They will be warned by emails, text messages, or even at home if they do not respond.

These exemptions will effectively lead to inequalities: 40% of the population in metropolitan France would not experience any load shedding, as they are supplied by the same power lines as priority customers. In this respect, Paris raises particular questions. "Obviously, when we draw up the map of even the Parisian hospitals, cutting power lines is a headache that we do not know how to solve," confessed a government source. Corsica should also be spared because it is connected to the Italian electricity network. In the end, the cuts would therefore focus on 60% of the population.

Power cuts as 'last resort' options

In concrete terms, a red Ecowatt signal (RTE's warning system) would be announced three days in advance on the Ecowatt website and application. The map of the departments impacted would be published the day before at 3 pm. From 5 pm on the day before any power cuts, users could, by entering a postal address, find out whether their department is included in the load-shedding plan or not.

At 9:30 pm, Enedis will proceed to the necessary updates if needed and the site will be updated if there have been (downward) adjustments by the end of the night. The cuts would occur on small pockets spread over the territory. Yet the situation is likely to change until the last minute.

"Load shedding could be decreed the evening before and, in the end, not take place the next morning if the weather has become milder during the night, for example," explained Mr. Sudret in late October. "The temperature is very important as in winter, one degree less requires 2 gigawatts more power consumption." These rotating power cuts will last a maximum of two hours and only take place outside weekends during peak consumption periods (from 8 am to 1 pm and from 6 pm to 8 pm), and in theory, only once a day, over one or several days if necessary. The same address should not be impacted twice in a row.

While they are more likely than ever, Enedis insists that these blackouts remain a "last resort," while levers are already being used to avoid reaching this point. First among them is energy sufficiency – the government hopes that the French will voluntarily limit their use in the timeslots concerned – but also a shift of when hot water tanks switch on at night, or a 5% voltage reduction on the electrical grid.